Statistics

I'm glad that you're interested in taking AMS5 with me this spring.  I'm looking forward to a great class.

However, at this stage, please do not email or call me asking for a permission code.  I do not have any permission codes to give out.  On March 11th the waitlist will open.  Please add yourself to the waitlist once it is open.  Then, if you're still not enrolled by the first class session, come to the first class session where I will deal with those who want to add.  Please be aware, however, that past experience is that only a few of the people who are not enrolled by the first class session are able to add.

 

General Class Information:

 

Lecture Times

Tuesday and Thursday, 10-11:45am, Earth&Marine B206

 

Instructor

Robin Morris

email: rdm @ soe.ucsc.edu - please put "AMS5" in the subject line

phone: email is preferred; (408) 821 8932 if desperate

Office: Baskin Engineering 373

Office Hours: Tuesdays 1-2pm and Thursdays 12:30-1:30pm noon-1pm, or by appointment

 

TAs

Kurtis Shuler, kshuler@ucsc.edu

Georgi Dinolov, gdinolov@soe.ucsc.edu

TA office hours are

  • Kurtis Shuler - Monday, 3-4pm in Jack’s Lounge in Jack Baskin Engineering
  • Georgi Dinolov - Wednesdays, 2-3pm in BE312C/D

 

Sections

Section 01A: M 2-3:10, Phys Sci 140 (Kurtis Shuler)

Section 01B: W 12:30-1:40 Phys Sci 140 (Georgi Dinolov)

Section 01C: W 3:30-4:10, Engineering 2-192 (Georgi Dinolov)

Section 01D: F 8-9:10, Engineering 2-192 (Kurtis Shuler)

Section 01E: F 9:30-10:40, Engineering 2-192 (Kurtis Shuler)

The first section will meet on Friday April 3rd, and the last section will meet on Wednesday June 3rd.

There is one holiday this quarter, Memorial Day on Monday May 25th.  Sections will not meet on that day. If you are registered for the Monday section, please attend one of the other sections that week.

 

Tutoring

MSI is available for AMS5 this quarter.  The MSI Learning Assistant Tutor is Morgan Pelot mpelot@ucsc.edu . The main MSI page is http://www2.ucsc.edu/lss/msi.shtml and The schedule, once determined, can be found at: https://eop.sa.ucsc.edu/msi/msischedule.cfm .  Additional tutoring for those who attend MSI may also be available.

MSI Schedule

Monday 7-8:15pm in Porter 241
Wednesday 2-3:10pm at Oakes Learning Center
Thursday 6-7:15pm in Crown 201

 

Discussion Forum

There is a piazza discussion forum available at https://piazza.com/ucsc/spring2015/ams5 

 

Textbook

Statistics, Freedman, Pisani and Purves, 4th Edition, W.W. Norton

 

Schedule

The proposed schedule is below.  Note that this may (will?) change depending on how the quarter progresses

 

 

Date Topic Chapter Homework Lecture Notes
Tue March 31st

Introduction; why satistics; data types

 

http://tinyurl.com/ams5lecture1

 

 

 

 notes
Th April 2nd

Controlled experiments; observational studies

Mother Jones article about lead in gasoline and violent crime

National Bureau of Ecnomic Research Working Paper (summary, full paper - look at figure 4 on page 69)  

1, 2 

Chapter 2 (p 20),

A2, A6, A8, A9, A10

6.4, 6.7, 6.9, 6.11 

 notes
Tu April 7th

Sample surveys; the histogram

Bleach and respiratory infections

19, 3

Chapter 19

A2, A6, A8, A11, A12

9.1, 9.2, 9.4

 

Chapter 3

A1, A3, A4, A7, B1, B3, C2, E1

8.3, 8.4, 8.10 

 notes

Th April 9th

The histogram; average and standard deviation; Normal approximation; (quiz)

quiz solutions

4, 5 

 Chapter 4

A2, A4, A6, A8, B1, B2, B5, C1, C4, D1, D8, E4, E8

8.1, 8.4, 8.5, 8.7, 8.9

 

Chapter 5

A1, B1, B3, C2, D5

7.1, 7.2, 7.4

 notes

Tu April 14th

 

 Standard deviation; Normal Approximation; Introduction to probability

normal table

 

 

 notes
Th April 16th  Introduction to probability; More probability 13

 Chapter 13

A1, B1, B2, B4, C4, D1, D3, D7

6.5, 6.7, 6.9, 6.10

notes 

 

Tu April 21st

 More probability; Law of averages

14 

Chapter 14

A1, A2, B1, B4

6.3, 6.7, 6.9, 6.12

notes 

Th April 23rd

Binomial probability;  Law of averages; (quiz)

quiz solutions

15, 16 

  Chapter 15

A1, A4, A5

3.4, 3.6, 3.7

 

Chapter 16

A3, A6, B2, C3

5.1, 5.3, 5.4, 5.7

notes 

Tu April 28th

Expected value and standard error; Normal appxoximation for probability histograms;

Midterm Review

 

practice midterm 1

practice midterm 2

practice midterm 3

practice midterm 4

practice midterm 5 

 

Solutions to (some of) the practice midterms are on the attachments page

Th April 30th

Midterm Review

Expected value and standard error; Normal appxoximation for probability histograms;

 

 

17, 18

 

Chapter 17

A1, A2, B1, B4, C1, C2, C5, E9

6.1, 6.3, 6.8, 6.9

 

Chapter 18

A1, A3, A6, B1, B3, C5, C6

7.1, 7.2, 7.6, 7.11, 7.15

 

notes

Tu May 5th

Midterm Exam (in class)

NOTE: THE DATE OF THE MIDTERM HAS CHANGED FROM THE DATE ORIGINALLY POSTED

   

model solutions 

Th May 7th

Normal appxoximation for probability histograms; Chance errors in sampling

20 

 Chapter 20

A1, A2, A5, B1, B3, C1, C4

6.1, 6.3, 6.7

 

notes 

Tu May 12th

The accuracy of percentages/averages 

 21, 23 

 Chapter 21

A2, A7, A8, B1, B4, C4, C8

6.3, 6.5, 6.8

Chapter 23

A2, A3, A5, B4, B6, D1, D2

5.3, 5.12

 notes

Th May 14th

Hypothesis testing (quiz)

quiz solutions

26

 Chapter 26

B2, B5, C1, C4, C7, D1, D4, E2, E3, E10, F2, F3, F7

7.3, 7.11

 notes

Tu May 19th

More hypothesis testing

Note that we did not cover the t-test.  We may cover it later.

27, 28 

 Chapter 27

A1, A4, A6, B2, B5, B7

6.3, 6.5

Chapter 28

A3, A4, A9, C2, C3

5.2, 5.3

 notes

Th May 21st

A closer look at tests of significance; (Please read Measurement error; plotting on your own) (quiz)

The quiz can be found on the attachments page.

quiz solutions

29, 6, 7 

 Chapter 29

A2, B1, B8, C2, C6

7.3, 7.4

 notes

Tu May 26th

More on significance tests; Correlation 

8, 9 

 Chapter 8

A2, A6, B1, B6, D1

5.2, 5.7

 

Chapter 9

A2, A3, A4, A5, A10, B4, C1, E3, E4

6.2, 6.5, 6.12

 notes (apologies for the coffee stains)

Th May 28th

Correlation; Regression (quiz)

10 

 Chapter 10

A1, A4, C2, C5, D2

6.2, 6.5, 6.7

 notes

Tu June 2nd

RMS error for regression; regression line  11, 12   Chapter 11

A2, A4, A7, B1, C1, D1, D6

6.4, 6.6

 

Chapter 12

A2, B1

4.1, 4.7, 4.8

 notes

Th June 4th

Review    

notes

review notes

review slides part 1

review slides part 2 

 

Thursday June 11th

Final Exam, 8-11am, Earth and Marine B206

 

 

practice final 1

practice final 2

practice final 3

practice final 4

practice final 5

model solutions are on the attachments page 

 

 

       
   
   

 

Additional Information

DRC

If you qualify for classroom accomodations because of a disability, please submit your Accomodation Authorization from the Disability Resource Center (DRC) to me during my office hours in a timely manner, preferably within the first two weeks of the quarter. Contact the DRC at 459-2089 V, 459-4806 TTY.

Academic Integrity

You are reminded of the University's Policy on Academic Integrity.  I hope not to have to remind any of you individually about this policy.

Some Thoughts About Lectures

"In Praise of Lectures" gives some ideas about the purpose of lectures, note-taking, and not being afraid to ask questions. It's target audience is more advanced mathematics students, but everything it says applies here. Think about the ideas it presents, and you will have a better time in AMS7 lectures. In particular

  • Lectures complement reading the textbook. In lectures I can spend extra time explaining ideas that students find confusing or difficult. I can try to judge from your behaviour your level of comprehension and adjust what I say accordingly.
  • I am not, however, a mind-reader. If you have questions, please ask them. If you don't understand something, chances are there are others who don't understand either, but are more inhibited than you are.
  • If you don't want to concentrate on the lecture, you're not required to attend. Please be considerate of those who do want to concentrate.
  • The lectures will present the material, but you will only know if you truly understand it if you try the homework problems. Only by applying the ideas yourself will you know that you have mastered them. “I went to a lecture on the violin, but when I tried playing one it sounded horrid. The lecturer can't have been any good.”
  • If you are having difficulties, please come and see me during office hours. Do this early in the quarter, rather than a week before the final exam. My goal is for everyone to understand and be comfortable with the material. If this is also your goal, I'm willing to do what's needed to help you achieve that goal.

Instructors and Assistants