CMPS240, Spring 2013, Section 01: Lecture 4 Thursday April 11, 2013

We computed the solution to the gold/silver coins bag problem.

 

"Rational" Decision Theory uses the Expected Utility Formula has some problems!

 

      *** assigning utilities is a difficult thing since it almost always brings in outside or "meta" issues

      including risk aversion, # of trials, learning etc.

 

     ****   The formula can be "misleading"   or even wrong!   Main problem:

                        very unlikely events are given too much weight  (especially in short term).

 

We gave the 4 axioms of probability. They can verified using the deFinetti Gambling Game!

There are different philosophies of probability:

        frequentists, objectivists, subjectivists (includes Bayesians).

 

We covered Davis Punam algorithm for satisfiability and more (see SAT tab on menu).